This mess is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
i really hope its over soon.
Well… The ram manufacturers will have a great surprise when AI doesn’t continue growing exponentially and all their other customers have died.
But at least we made the line go up this quarter I guess.
LLMs haven’t been growing exponentially for the past 2 years. What we are seeing right now are the final stages of optimizing the product(by OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.), and initial stages of consumers/companies figuring out actual effective areas of application.
I don’t think RAM manufacturers will feel any pain. There might be fewer consumer electronics manufacturers after this, but the same demand for consumer electronics. There will be about the same level of production, but just by fewer manufacturers.
I doubt RAM manufacturers will feel any pain. From the article,
Pua Khein-Seng is further said to have highlighted that memory manufacturers are now “demanding three years’ worth of prepayment (unprecedented in the electronics industry)”
If they’re really being prepaid three years in advance that’s a huge cushion. Of course this assumes that it’s really money and not just a contract for more money.
I love how we have to protect Taiwan against Chinese annexation because the World relies on their chips, but when extremely large corporations basically take away the World’s supply of chips it is supposed to be fine.
At least with the Crypto and now the AI craze we are at least getting used to shortages from the eventual war of the chips
How about instead of building concentration camps, we build chip factories, and employ all the people we’re abusing? Then they can spend their earnings, and pay taxes, and stimulate the economy.
Or we can lock them up, create a chip shortage, destroy otherwise viable companies, and keep our economy limping along, satisfied with the false metric of the Stock Market as a score.
Yeah, I wouldn’t give the current admin any ideas. It’d be less of a “employ all the people” and more of a “work will set you free” type of arrangement.
I think they are gonna do that without any tips from BarneyPiccolo
Coming to a potato farm near you
The longer this goes on the more it seems like the explicit goal rather than a side effect.
bingo. And any companies that do make it out the other end of this will transition to subscriptions for their stuff. HP is already rolling this out for their laptops. The end goal is to stop people from owning stuff but pay a monthly subscription on it. and if you want to own a device outright, prepare to pay a premium.
Market manipulation, innit?
If I wrote a fictional story about a critical component of modern society being manufactured on a single island, and then had that island invaded by the neighboring nation causing the rest of the world to collapse, I’m pretty sure people would dismiss the story.
But here we are. Any country not scrambling to build local fabs are in danger.
This is arguably about an un(der?)regulated futures market gone wild. If you can buy all the production for the year, before it’s even been produced, you’re going to create a shortage. One could argue that supply and demand is out of whack and that more fabs = more supply to meet demand, but if Western Digital completely sold out of hard drives when we’re only 1/6 of the way through the year then more supply isn’t really the way to fix it.
This is a really interesting point. It seems to suggest that the self-organising property of markets isn’t just from supply & demand, but also requires some other conditions (that demand is widely distributed politically? or in space & time?) and that any market with a sufficiently wealthy actor loses its predictive power, because they can destroy those conditions whenever it benefits them.
Doesn’t even seem to be related to the fact that they had exclusive purchase rights. Lacking that, you could buy far in the future after everyone else has put in their orders.
Supply and demand hold where there is competition within and across all the market layers. This has rarely held in IT and the hardware market has always had these problems at smaller scales where the capacity of suppliers or demand is so skewed that certain actors on the market have to be appeased at the cost of long term health of the industry.
That is to say we had ample warning that was ignored.
This won’t happen because they need consumer electronics to enslave the population.
Guess who will ‘help’ these companies in the future. It’s a power grab, plain and simple
I saw a post that they plan on most office jobs will be obsolete in the next 2 years.
Sorry about the RAM prices but we needed it to make you unemployed, thank you for understanding.
‘But in return we’ll get free healthcare and a basic income, right?’ ‘Nope 😂’
In all developed nations you have the first one already.
But just think of how full all the troughs will be once these new data centers go into full swing.
But it’s not a bubble!
